Despite the recent sell-off, the stock remains up 30% so far in 2025 and has climbed 47% over six months. Analysts remain divided on the near-term outlook, with technical charts suggesting both key support zones and potential upside targets if the stock stabilises.
Key levels to watch
Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking, said, “Reliance Power is currently witnessing a short-term correction after a strong rally… The stock has slipped below its short-term moving averages, indicating weakening momentum, while still holding above the medium-term and long-term averages, which suggests the broader trend remains intact.”Immediate support lies in the Rs 54 level, with stronger support around Rs 48–50 zone, said Mishra, adding that resistance is seen near Rs 64 and then around Rs 72 as a major hurdle.
The stock is trading at an RSI of 39.7. Mishra said that the RSI reflects mild bearish sentiment, while a bearish MACD crossover “further confirms the loss of momentum,” cautioning traders to “refrain from fresh longs and wait for support levels.” He expects medium-term targets of Rs 72–75 if the stock stabilises.
Mandar Bhojane, Senior Research Analyst at Choice Broking, sees a potential rebound opportunity. “The price is approaching its 20 EMA, which is placed around Rs 54.60, and may act as an immediate support. If we observe any bullish reversal signs around this level, it can be considered a buy-on-dips opportunity. In such a scenario, potential upside targets are seen at Rs 80 and Rs 90,” he said.
Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza, highlighted the stock’s weakening chart structure. “Reliance Power is currently forming a lower high–lower low structure, indicating a continued negative bias. After successfully achieving its falling wedge breakout target, the stock has entered a throwback phase, retreating from higher levels on diminishing volume — a sign that the breakout lacks sustained follow-through,” he said.
“In the near term, the stock is expected to remain under pressure with a downside target of 54–54.26, while any rebound is likely to face resistance around 66.70. However, a reversal signal would only be confirmed if Reliance Power manages to reclaim 66.70 with strong volumes, potentially leading to a rally towards 70.93–76.30. Until then, the overall setup remains weak, and it is advisable to avoid fresh long positions,” Kamble said.
Profitability and debt reduction support long-term outlook
Reliance Power has returned to profitability after years of losses, reporting a net profit of Rs 44.68 crore in Q1FY26 compared with a net loss of Rs 97.85 crore in Q1FY25. The company also posted profits of Rs 125.57 crore and Rs 42 crore in Q4 and Q3FY25, respectively.
Anubhav Sangal, Sr. Research Analyst at Bonanza, attributed the turnaround to operational efficiency and deleveraging. “The shift into profit was driven primarily by lower expenses and better operational efficiency, as indicated by a year-on-year jump in EBITDA margin from 2.4% to 29.8%. The company significantly reduced its debt load (by over Rs 5,300 crore in the past year), improving its balance sheet and reducing financial risk,” he said.
The company plans to raise Rs 9,000 crore, including Rs 6,000 crore via equity and Rs 3,000 crore through non-convertible debentures, to further cut debt and support renewable energy expansion. “Improved balance sheet should help reduce the risk perception, potentially supporting a re-rating by lowering the company’s cost of capital,” Sangal said, though he cautioned that the equity component may lead to near-term EPS dilution.
Regulatory overhang from ED raids
The ED’s ongoing probe into Yes Bank loan fraud, involving alleged fund diversions between 2017 and 2019, has weighed on investor confidence in Anil Ambani group firms. Both Reliance Power and Reliance Infrastructure have stated that the investigation pertains to transactions of Reliance Communications and Reliance Home Finance, entities with no business or financial linkage to their operations, and insisted that the raids “have no operational or financial impact” on their businesses.
Also read | Reliance Infra, Reliance Power shares slide 10% in 2 days after ED raids sites linked to Anil Ambani
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
